Tropical Storm Lorenzo: A Late-Season Surprise in the Atlantic
Tropical Storm Lorenzo made its debut in the central tropical Atlantic on Monday morning, October 13th, with winds reaching 50 mph. Lorenzo's path is predicted to curve north and then northeast, potentially intensifying into a powerful tropical storm with 70 mph winds by Thursday. However, this storm poses no immediate threat to any land areas.
What's intriguing about Lorenzo is its timing and location. Forming on October 13th, it closely aligns with the average formation date of the season's 12th named storm, which is typically around October 11th. This places the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season on par with the average in terms of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes.
But here's where it gets controversial: Lorenzo's formation in the deep tropics, south of 20°N, is a rare occurrence for this late in the hurricane season. The last time a named storm formed in this region so late was back in 2003, with storms Nicholas and Peter. This area is typically reserved for August and September formations, making Lorenzo an unusual late-season visitor.
And this is the part most people miss: Lorenzo isn't the only storm to form in an unusual location recently. Just four days prior, Subtropical Storm Karen emerged in the northern Atlantic, becoming the northernmost system in Atlantic history to be classified as a tropical or subtropical storm. Karen's short-lived existence as a subtropical storm in this unlikely location adds to the intrigue.
The runner-up for the northernmost named storm in the Atlantic is Tropical Storm Grace, which formed northeast of the Azores in 2009. However, an entry in the HURDAT 2 database suggests an even more northern hurricane in 1858, located at 45.0°N.
As we look ahead, a tropical wave emerging from Africa today is predicted to move westward, potentially reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands by October 20th. While it's too early to predict specific threats, residents of the Caribbean islands should keep an eye on this disturbance as it approaches. As of now, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has not yet highlighted this wave in their Tropical Weather Outlook.
So, what do you think? Is Lorenzo's formation a sign of a changing hurricane season pattern, or just a rare anomaly? Share your thoughts and theories in the comments below!
